"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
Every year, sports fans shift their attention to Louisville on the first Saturday in May for the Kentucky Derby.
There’s just something incredibly special about the event, dubbed "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports."
This is the 152nd "Run for the Roses," and regardless of whether you indulge in a few Mint Juleps, there is fun to be had for all — particularly when it comes to laying a few wagers.
So, let's jump into the action.
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Since 2020, when the continuous 20-horse gate has been used, no horse breaking from the rail has finished better than fifth. However, none was better than the fourth choice on the board. Most ran pretty much to their rank on the oddsboard.
2025 — Citizen Bull 7th/15th
2024 — Dornoch 9th/10th
2023 — Hit Show 11th/5th
2022 — Mo Donegal 5th/5th
2021 — Known Agenda 4th/8th
2020 — Max Player 6th/5th
The last time a top-three choice broke from the rail was 2010, when Lookin At Lucky went favored and finished sixth. The last time a top-three choice broke from the rail and hit the board was 1974, when Agitate finished third. The last time a top-three choice broke from the rail and won was Needles in 1956.
The last horse to hit the board after breaking from the rail was Lookin at Lee - 2nd at 33-1 in 2017. That’s the only ITM finish by a horse that broke from the rail in the last 37 years. The last horse to win after breaking from the rail - Ferdinand at 18-1 in 1986.
Since Always Dreaming won the Derby in 2017, only one of Todd Pletcher’s 17 Derby starters hit the board — Audible, third in 2018. Seven of those 17 starters were among the top-five betting choices in the field. Pletcher has had 13 Derby starters sent off as a top-three betting choice. Two have won (Super Saver, Always Dreaming), three have finished third (Impeachment, Revolutionary Danza) and seven have finished 10th or worse. Pletcher did not have a starter in the Derby last year.
Favorites have finished in the money in 18 of the last 19 Triple Crown Races (four wins, nine seconds, five thirds). The one that didn’t — Fierceness, who finished 15th in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. If you limit it to the Kentucky Derby, favorites have finished in the money in 12 of the last 14 Kentucky Derbies (six wins, four seconds, two thirds), with Fierceness in 2024 and Improbable in 2019 the omissions.
The last eight Triple Crown races have been formful from a trifecta standpoint. Of the 24 runners that occupied the trifecta spots, 18 were among the top-three betting choices on the board. However, we’ve still seen big payouts, as five of the last nine Triple Crown races were won by a horse that was at least the 5th betting choice.
Since a run of six straight winning Derby favorites from 2013-2018, none of the official Derby winners was better than the third choice. In that span, the longest shot on the board (Rich Strike) and 18th betting choice (Country House) have won the race.
Official Kentucky Derby Winner (Since 2019)
Odds/Odds Rank
2025 — Sovereignty 8-1/3rd
2024 — Mystik Dan 19-1/7th
2023 — Mage 15-1/8th
2022 — Rich Strike 81-1/20th
2021 — Mandaloun 27-1/8th <
2020 — Authentic 8-1/3rd
2019 — Country House 65-1/18th
* < Was not paid out as winner in mutuels
Flavien Prat has had 16 mounts in Triple Crown races. Only once has he finished worse than fourth, and that was with his second Triple Crown mount Solomini. His 16 mounts have resulted in two wins, two seconds, seven thirds and four fourth-place finishes. If you limit it to the Derby, it's a win, one second, four thirds and a fourth from eight mounts. Anyone care to wheel Emerging Market, who is 15-1 on the moneyline, in the superfecta?
The second choice in the wagering hasn’t won since Super Saver in 2010. The fourth choice in the wagering hasn’t won since Grindstone in 1996
Irad Ortiz Jr. has never hit the board from his nine Derby mounts. His best finish is fourth aboard the 2019 favorite Improbable.
Since winning his third Derby aboard Authentic in 2020, John Velazquez's last four mounts have finished 15th, 13th, 15th and 19th. Each of them were among the top-seven betting choices.
Mike Smith will be making his 69th career Triple Crown mount aboard So Happy. Smith last hit the board in a Triple Crown race when Justify crossed the wire first in the 2018 Belmont Stakes to win the Triple Crown.