In one week, voters in suburban Woodbury and rural Wright County will decide a pair of state Senate special elections that will determine which party has a majority heading into 2026.
A lawmaker’s death and another’s burglary conviction over the summer left the seats vacant.
The contests in two distinct districts will restore the Senate to its full complement for the first time in months. And they offer up a preview for high-stakes campaigns in 2026 when all 201 legislative seats are on the ballot.
Voters in both districts have been targeted by mailers, social media ads and visits from candidates and surrogates aimed at influencing their decisions – and getting them to vote at all in what are typically low-turnout elections.
For Democrats, top issues are addressing climate change, funding schools and addressing gun violence in the wake of the August shooting at Annunciation Catholic Church. Mailers paid for by the DFL also take aim at an official not on the ballot, or even in the state: President Donald Trump.
“Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger is standing up to Donald Trump and big corporations to project your family budget,” one reads.
Republicans have honed in on the issue of fraud in state programs, and they frequently invoke a leader not set to come up for reelection until next year: Gov. Tim Walz.
“Minnesota is drowning in fraud,” an Instagram ad by a GOP-aligned group says. It ends with the tagline: “Stop Amanda. Stop the fraud.”
Democrats hold a slim advantage heading into the elections, the Senate is currently composed of 33 Democrats and 32 Republicans. Neither party has enough votes to pass bills on its own. If Democrats win at least one or the races, they’ll maintain control. If Republicans sweep both, they’ll get the Senate majority.
Both parties concede that the stakes are high.
“It's obvious that these special elections are going to make the difference – our majority or not,” Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy, DFL-St. Paul, told MPR News. “And I intend to keep our majority. But more importantly, every election is an opportunity for the voters to say, ‘here's what we think and here's what we want.’”
Senate Minority Leader Mark Johnson, R-East Grand Forks, said the races could offer a glimpse, too, at how Minnesota voters might weigh in come 2026.
“These two races are going to be kind of bellwether, I think, of the ‘26 race a little bit on where people are at and what they're thinking about,” Johnson said. “They’re two very different districts. One's a rural district, one one's a metro district, and just kind of the messaging that's coming there.”
Here’s a look at how the two races are shaping up on the ground.
Senate District 29
In Wright County, Republican Michael Holmstrom, Jr. and Democrat Louis McNutt are vying to fill the Senate seat left vacant after Republican Sen. Bruce Anderson died.
The district has historically favored Republicans. Holmstrom, a small business owner, said he frequently hears about fraud in state programs as he knocks doors. The Republican said restrictions on businesses, concerns about school lesson plans and transgender athlete participation in sports are also top of mind.
“I've seen how government decisions can really impact business owners and the business community, and by correlation, employers and their opportunities or employees and their opportunities,” Holmstrom said.
He said policies passed during the DFL trifecta in 2023 and 2024 posed real challenges. He added that — the state’s paid family and medical leave program — could bring more complications when it takes effect next year. Holmstrom said a change in Senate control could shift policymaking at the Capitol.
“I think it means a lot of opportunities to pull back some of the crazy policies,” Holmstrom said. “I think there’s an appetite across the state to see Republicans get in and have some responsible leadership that’s going to bring back the values that we believe in.”
McNutt, a heavy equipment mechanic and union leader, is trying to turn the tide in the conservative district. The DFL nominee said voters here are most concerned about the ballooning cost of living. And, McNutt said, he can relate.
“I'm from labor, working class and I think we're all tired of a lot of bosses and a lot of lawyers telling us all in very eloquent or very convoluted terms what should happen when we just want somebody to stand side by side by us,” McNutt said.
The DFLer said he’d vote on issues, not necessarily party lines, if elected. He voiced some concern about the direction of his party.
“I am honestly running as almost an independent. I’m running as labor, because the DFL is supposed to be a combination of Democrats, farmers and labor,” McNutt said, “and I believe the Democrat Party has kind of in a direction and left the other two kind of behind.”
As Holmstrom knocked doors in Delano last week, voters had more to say about elected officials in Washington, D.C., than in St. Paul.
“I am a little disillusioned with the Republican Party to begin with,” Gary Parker told Holmstrom. “There doesn't seem to be enough power in the Congress to say, ‘no,’ to this autocrat that's running our country, and I don't know how on the hell we're doing anything about it.”
A few houses away, Joyce Czeck said she’s concerned about civility in politics, especially among Democratic leaders she’s observed.
“Come on, guys, we're all adults. Act like adults,” Czeck said. “I grew up in a very Democrat household, and if my dad was alive today, he would not be a Democrat.”
Senate District 47
Another seat — this one in suburban Woodbury and a small slice of Maplewood — is up for election after DFL Sen. Nicole Mitchell’s burglary conviction this summer. Democratic state Rep. Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger is vying against Republican Dwight Dorau, a Air Force veteran and teacher who has run in the district before.
At the doors, both candidates try to raise awareness about the upcoming special session. Voters weren’t always aware but often said they’d heard about the circumstances that left the seat open.
District voters have elected Democrats in recent races, but special elections can be unpredictable given lower turnout. Hemmingsen-Jaeger is campaigning on affordability, addressing climate change and gun violence prevention.
“I'm a working mom, so really, what got me into this was seeing that there's a lot of great work being done in the science field, but it wasn't necessarily translating into policy,” Hemmingsen-Jaeger said. “We want to make sure that we have people there that are here to represent the people here, to be a good voice.”
Big names in the Democratic Party — like Attorney General Keith Ellison and first lady Gwen Walz — have come to the district in an effort to keep the seat in DFL hands.
For his part, Dorau focuses his messaging on stopping fraud in government while securing money for wastewater projects for growing communities like Woodbury.
“I'm very disappointed for the housing stabilization losses, Feeding Our Future losses, and the autism school losses,” Dorau said, listing out programs that had been targeted for improper use by groups that contracted with the state. “You're taking the benefit directly from the people who need it, and then also you're wasting taxpayer dollars.”
Preview of 2026?
These two raises offer a snapshot of the messaging that could be central to a broader campaign for seats in the Legislature next year. Both chambers of the closely divided Legislature are at stake then, with only a small fraction of seats likely to be truly competitive. Those races will draw many millions of dollars in campaign spending.
Johnson, the Senate minority leader, said the issue of fraud is one that Republicans intend to hit hard in 2026.
“The fraud issue that has really echoed and resonated with people on, you know, the amount of money and what is happening with state government when they pay their taxes every year,” Johnson said. “It seems very disappointing when we're a state that really was built on good governance and now you see the Democrats taking advantage of that, or taking that down to a point where that's not not the case anymore.”
Murphy, the Senate majority leader, said Democrats don’t like misuse of state money any more than Republicans do.
“None of us like what has happened: People stealing money from the government and especially raiding programs that are meant to help vulnerable people, people with disabilities and people who are aging,” Murphy said.
“We have to make sure that the programs that we put in place as legislators are still able to deliver the necessary services to people who are counting on them. That's a real hard challenge for us, but one that we're up for,” Murphy continued.
She said Democrats would focus their campaigning on some of the actions coming down from Congress and the Trump administration that could negatively impact Minnesotans. Murphy said voters will hear about DFL proposals to counteract them.
Early voting in the special election contests has started. Election Day is Nov. 4.
Tuesday’s outcomes will put the Senate back to 67 members. Then the campaign to fill all of those seats a year from now starts in earnest.