NEW JERSEY (PIX11) -- U.S. Rep. Andy Kim has solidified his status as the front-runner in New Jersey’s Democratic Senate primary, according to new exclusive polling from PIX11, Emerson College and The Hill.
It is the first extensive polling conducted since New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy ended her bid for the Democratic nomination.
Kim was the choice of 51% of Democratic voters surveyed. Patricia Campos-Medina got 6% and Lawrence Hamm got 5%. Thirty-nine percent of voters are undecided.
It is still a toss-up in the race for the Republican nominee. According to the poll, 84% of New Jersey's GOP voters said they are undecided.
U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, who is charged with federal corruption, has a high disapproval rate of 62% in the poll. However, the Democratic senator has indicated he may run as an independent candidate.
The poll explored this possibility. Forty-nine percent of New Jersey voters surveyed said they preferred a generic Democratic Senate candidate, while 42% said they would select a generic Republican candidate. Menendez was the choice of about 9% of voters, but that does not appear to be enough to upset the current balance in New Jersey politics.
However, it is a different story in the presidential race for New Jersey's 14 electoral votes.
In the likely contest between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden leads by only 5%, according to the poll. Biden won by 16% in 2020.
A tighter race in 2024 may come down to the presence of Robert Kennedy Jr. in the race. The Democrat-turned-independent is an environmental lawyer who often peddles in conspiracies. The poll showed he was the choice of 8% of New Jersey voters, with another 14% of voters undecided.
The New Jersey results may typify a potential nationwide problem for both Biden and Trump: high dissatisfaction with the very likely nominees, and an openness to a third-party candidate.
As for the issues important to New Jersey voters, the poll found overwhelmingly the economy at 39% was the top issue. Other concerns such as housing, threats to democracy and immigration were each selected by 10%-12% of voters.
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill New Jersey survey was conducted March 26-29, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The Democratic primary consisted of 408 Democratic primary voters with a credibility interval of +/-4.8%. The Republican primary consisted of a sample of 310 Republican primary voters with a credibility interval of +/-5.5%. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (NJ S.O.S.).