With less than a week before the primary, Democrat Adam Schiff continues to maintain a lead in California’s race for U.S. Senate, but the critical race for second is within the margin of error, according to a new Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll released on Thursday.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted Feb. 24 - 27.
It found Rep. Schiff with the support of 28% of likely voters. Republican former Major League Baseball player Steve Garvey had 20% support followed by Democrat Rep. Katie Porter with 17% and Democrat Rep. Barbara Lee with 8%.
Seventeen percent remained undecided.
“Both Garvey and Porter are within the poll's margin of error for second place in a race where a top-two finish would place them on the ballot in November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The winner of the November runoff will succeed Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who held the seat from 1992 until her death in September 2023.
Among those who have already voted, the survey found 47% supported Schiff, 19% Porter, 18% Garvey, and 10% Lee. Among those who have yet to vote but are likely to do so, 30% support Schiff, 22% Garvey, and Porter 20%.
The survey also showed a vast majority of Californians, 69%, support California Proposition 1, a ballot measure that authorizes $6.38 billion in bonds to build treatment facilities for those with mental health and substance abuse issues.
Other poll results:
- Independents split: 27% support Schiff, 24% support Garvey, and 20% support Porter.
- A quarter (25%) of voters under 30 support Katie Porter, while 21% support Lee, and 20% Schiff.
- Schiff’s support is highest among voters over 70: 49% support Schiff, while 30% support Garvey.
- The economy is the top issue for 25% of voters, followed by housing affordability (15%), immigration (12%), healthcare (10%), crime (9%), threats to democracy (8%), and education (7%).
- President Biden holds a 50% job approval among likely California primary voters, and 38% disapprove of the job he is doing.
- Governor Gavin Newsom holds a 49% job approval while 39% disapprove of the job he is doing as Governor.
- In a potential 2024 matchup, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump 57% to 35%, while 9% are undecided.